-We had another mostly nice day in Wolfville today. At times, almost inexplicably, a few raindrops fell marring what would have been an almost perfect day.
-While visiting the grocery store I managed to snag a quick time-lapse vid of the clouds over the dykes.
[Embedded video]
I still find the apparent cloud ceiling that exists in the valley an amazing phenomenon.
-Last night I made myself a nice batch of mashed potatoes as a late night snack and then I completely ran out of interest in my mashed potato snack. Hopefully I will have a little more interest in a left-over/day old mashed potato snack this evening.
-While running errands this afternoon I impulsively decided to stop in at a local barbershop in a neighbouring town to get a haircut. Much to my surprise, the place was absolutely packed. Apparently missing four good haircutting days leads to something of a backlog among members of the barbershop visiting community. I guess I know now that Easter Tuesday isn't the time to try to drop in for a haircut at a barbershop.
-It seems that my post on Florida's population was more popular than I expected. Who knew you were all waiting for my thoughts on the implications of Florida's population boom?
Showing posts with label Population. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Population. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Monday, April 09, 2012
Thinking about Florida's population
Earlier today, while doing some reading about population trends in major North American metropolitan areas I started poking around the web to find more up-to-date population numbers. Not to far into my search for numbers I happened across the Google Public Data site and started playing around.
It didn't take me long to display Florida's population information.
[Embedded image]
And then it didn't take me long to observe that Florida's population has basically doubled in the past 30 years. In 1980 the population was 9.7 million and as of mid 2011 it was 19 million.
My immediate thought was that this meant that at least 50% of Florida's population has been in the state for less than 30 years. From there it didn't take me long to realize that to assume anywhere close to 50% was seriously overestimating the portion of the population that had been in Florida for 30 years.
First of all, mortality rates were something that I needed consider. If we take the 1980 mortality numbers and assume a consistent mortality rate and apply this number the population for the 30 year period we find that 3 million of the starting 9.7 have since died.
Secondly, internal migration is something that we need to consider. Some portion of the population living in Florida in 1980 are now living somewhere else. It didn't take long to find some numbers on internal migration from the Census Bureau. I was particularly surprised to learn that despite it's reputation as a hub for retirees "Florida experienced net outmigration of those aged 85 and over." Anyway, though this is definitely a rough guess, I kind that suggesting about a 1% rate of outmigration a year would be fair. Again this ends up being about 3 million of the starting 9.7 million.
And while I'm sure that I should think about more than just death and internal migration, if we take just these two factors and apply them or the 1980 population of 9.7 million we likely now have only about 3.7 million of those people still living in Florida. Another way of thinking about it is to say that only about 20% of those currently residing in Florida have been there for 30/32 or more years.
Given that some Pew numbers I found suggest 70% of Florida's adult population wasn't born in the state I am inclined to think that my numbers aren't too far off the mark.
I guess the point I'm getting at is that whether we say that 70% of Florida's population wasn't born in state or that only 20% have been there for more than 30 years it does seem to be the case that most taxpayers and voters in Florida do not have a long history in the state and thus are not likely to have first-hand experience with the economic/social/political developments that have taken place over the past few decades.
Following from that point, to what extent does this reality undermine political socialization that is somewhat reflective of Florida's historical development? Put another way, is Florida making Floridians of its new inhabitants or is Florida just full of north easterners (one of the areas from which many of Florida's internal migrants come)? I can't help but wonder if jurisdictions with similar population trends have less predictable political outcomes because of the lack familiarity the incoming population has with the traditions of the area.
If nothing else, it's kind of amazing to think that less that only about 20% of Florida's population have lived there for more than 30 years.
It didn't take me long to display Florida's population information.
[Embedded image]
And then it didn't take me long to observe that Florida's population has basically doubled in the past 30 years. In 1980 the population was 9.7 million and as of mid 2011 it was 19 million.
My immediate thought was that this meant that at least 50% of Florida's population has been in the state for less than 30 years. From there it didn't take me long to realize that to assume anywhere close to 50% was seriously overestimating the portion of the population that had been in Florida for 30 years.
First of all, mortality rates were something that I needed consider. If we take the 1980 mortality numbers and assume a consistent mortality rate and apply this number the population for the 30 year period we find that 3 million of the starting 9.7 have since died.
Secondly, internal migration is something that we need to consider. Some portion of the population living in Florida in 1980 are now living somewhere else. It didn't take long to find some numbers on internal migration from the Census Bureau. I was particularly surprised to learn that despite it's reputation as a hub for retirees "Florida experienced net outmigration of those aged 85 and over." Anyway, though this is definitely a rough guess, I kind that suggesting about a 1% rate of outmigration a year would be fair. Again this ends up being about 3 million of the starting 9.7 million.
And while I'm sure that I should think about more than just death and internal migration, if we take just these two factors and apply them or the 1980 population of 9.7 million we likely now have only about 3.7 million of those people still living in Florida. Another way of thinking about it is to say that only about 20% of those currently residing in Florida have been there for 30/32 or more years.
Given that some Pew numbers I found suggest 70% of Florida's adult population wasn't born in the state I am inclined to think that my numbers aren't too far off the mark.
I guess the point I'm getting at is that whether we say that 70% of Florida's population wasn't born in state or that only 20% have been there for more than 30 years it does seem to be the case that most taxpayers and voters in Florida do not have a long history in the state and thus are not likely to have first-hand experience with the economic/social/political developments that have taken place over the past few decades.
Following from that point, to what extent does this reality undermine political socialization that is somewhat reflective of Florida's historical development? Put another way, is Florida making Floridians of its new inhabitants or is Florida just full of north easterners (one of the areas from which many of Florida's internal migrants come)? I can't help but wonder if jurisdictions with similar population trends have less predictable political outcomes because of the lack familiarity the incoming population has with the traditions of the area.
If nothing else, it's kind of amazing to think that less that only about 20% of Florida's population have lived there for more than 30 years.
Sunday, January 29, 2012
This is surprising
Just a few minutes ago I decided to find some census data from the US. I was mainly curious to see how much things had changed between the early 1980s and now.
While looking at the United States' Census' QuickFacts page I came across a few quick facts that surprised me.
First of all, who knew that the population grew by almost 10% over from 2000 and 2010? That seems like a pretty substantial growth rate.
Secondly, who had any idea that even with the aging baby boomer cohort and increasing life-spans that people over 65 only account for 13% of the population. This is all the more impressive/surprising when it is contrasted with the 24% of the population that is under 18. Who knew there were so many young'uns out there? Presumably this kind of population dynamic will mean a safe future for Social Security?
Finally, apparently only 85% of those over 25 have graduated from high school in the United States. This seems a little low to me, but what do I know.
While looking at the United States' Census' QuickFacts page I came across a few quick facts that surprised me.
First of all, who knew that the population grew by almost 10% over from 2000 and 2010? That seems like a pretty substantial growth rate.
Secondly, who had any idea that even with the aging baby boomer cohort and increasing life-spans that people over 65 only account for 13% of the population. This is all the more impressive/surprising when it is contrasted with the 24% of the population that is under 18. Who knew there were so many young'uns out there? Presumably this kind of population dynamic will mean a safe future for Social Security?
Finally, apparently only 85% of those over 25 have graduated from high school in the United States. This seems a little low to me, but what do I know.
Saturday, February 26, 2011
Partially formed ideas about post-secondary education in Nova Scotia
Since the release of the O'Neill Report on post-secondary education in Nova Scotia a number of the report's recommendations and potential ramifications have been on my mind. Of course, none of these ideas have been fully formed, nor have I really been able to articulate exactly where the problem is or what I think might be a better solution.
Recommendations relating to tuition deregulation have, it would seem, been foremost on my mind. For your information, the general thrust of the recommendation was for a deregulation of tuition fees with the expectation that they will increase over time. Almost immediately this recommendation seemed counter intuitive to me, at least if Nova Scotia is still interested in having universities. If they they want their universities to whither and die this recommendation makes prefect sense.
I guess I should start with a little background. Of the 77 000 (or so) university students in Atlantic Canada, 35 000 are studying at Nova Scotia's 11 universities (6 of which are located in Halifax). Many of these students come from place other than Nova Scotia. Dal suggests that 44% of its students come from provinces other than Nova Scotia and 10% are international students.
On the demographics side of things, Nova Scotia has one of the oldest populations in Canada and is only getting older. Population projections don't paint a rosy picture of the Nova Scotia of the future. I would say that it will be nothing but old folks homes but I am not sure that they will even have the people to work in those positions throughout the province. Consequently, a fair bit of money and effort has been put into encouraging young people to migrate to Nova Scotia, or stay here if that is where they are from.
On the competing universities side of things, MUN's lowered tuition fees and a corresponding increase in the number students from Nova Scotia seems to suggest that some portion of the Nova Scotia population is responsive to relative differences in tuition prices. As things stood in 2005/06 (the last year for which I could find full data) the difference in price between Dalhousie and Memorial for 4 years of tuition, room and board, and fees was about $27 000. Dalhousie was almost twice as expensive as Memorial for exactly the same degree. Unfortunately, I don't have a full picture of exactly how having the country's highest undergraduate tuition fees are driving local students out of the province (but I suspect that it is not a pretty picture).
I should also mention that Nova Scotia has a graduate tax rebate that can be valued at several thousand dollars, if you pay taxes/have a job. While the utility of this program, at least to me, seems questionable at best (particularly when other provinces have comparable programs that are more lucrative), it does suggest that the province is willing to put up funds to encourage youth residency in the province.
So, to sum up, we have a context where a young, educated population is needed and there is some evidence that these people seem at least somewhat sensitive to price. Consequently it seems strange to increase tuition when efforts are also being made to attract young residents to the region. This seems particularly strange given the relatively small sums of money we are talking about on the tuition front. $35 000 000 ($1000 a student) in a budget of several billion is relatively insignificant. Instead of driving students out and then trying to bring them back with a tax rebate (that may not even apply to most people) they could maybe consider trying to encourage them to stay with lower tuition fees, or something of that nature.
Anyway, I know I am rambling and a little disorganized, but it just seems that by allowing tuition increases the provincial government has the potential to exacerbate an already serious problem. As far as I can tell, the best case scenario associated with these recommendations is that only a few thousand students stop coming to Nova Scotia to be educated - which won't be good considering the number of universities that the province has chosen to maintain.
Again, I apologize for the sloppy organization of these ideas. I just needed to get this off my chest. Maybe if I talk it through a few more times I might have something approaching a coherent argument or position.
[And I should be clear, everything discussed here is in the context of a place that has chosen to publicly fund education and population retention schemes. The issue isn't whether or not public funds are appropriate, but how they will be used.]
Score
Cameron 58
Neil 0
Recommendations relating to tuition deregulation have, it would seem, been foremost on my mind. For your information, the general thrust of the recommendation was for a deregulation of tuition fees with the expectation that they will increase over time. Almost immediately this recommendation seemed counter intuitive to me, at least if Nova Scotia is still interested in having universities. If they they want their universities to whither and die this recommendation makes prefect sense.
I guess I should start with a little background. Of the 77 000 (or so) university students in Atlantic Canada, 35 000 are studying at Nova Scotia's 11 universities (6 of which are located in Halifax). Many of these students come from place other than Nova Scotia. Dal suggests that 44% of its students come from provinces other than Nova Scotia and 10% are international students.
On the demographics side of things, Nova Scotia has one of the oldest populations in Canada and is only getting older. Population projections don't paint a rosy picture of the Nova Scotia of the future. I would say that it will be nothing but old folks homes but I am not sure that they will even have the people to work in those positions throughout the province. Consequently, a fair bit of money and effort has been put into encouraging young people to migrate to Nova Scotia, or stay here if that is where they are from.
On the competing universities side of things, MUN's lowered tuition fees and a corresponding increase in the number students from Nova Scotia seems to suggest that some portion of the Nova Scotia population is responsive to relative differences in tuition prices. As things stood in 2005/06 (the last year for which I could find full data) the difference in price between Dalhousie and Memorial for 4 years of tuition, room and board, and fees was about $27 000. Dalhousie was almost twice as expensive as Memorial for exactly the same degree. Unfortunately, I don't have a full picture of exactly how having the country's highest undergraduate tuition fees are driving local students out of the province (but I suspect that it is not a pretty picture).
I should also mention that Nova Scotia has a graduate tax rebate that can be valued at several thousand dollars, if you pay taxes/have a job. While the utility of this program, at least to me, seems questionable at best (particularly when other provinces have comparable programs that are more lucrative), it does suggest that the province is willing to put up funds to encourage youth residency in the province.
So, to sum up, we have a context where a young, educated population is needed and there is some evidence that these people seem at least somewhat sensitive to price. Consequently it seems strange to increase tuition when efforts are also being made to attract young residents to the region. This seems particularly strange given the relatively small sums of money we are talking about on the tuition front. $35 000 000 ($1000 a student) in a budget of several billion is relatively insignificant. Instead of driving students out and then trying to bring them back with a tax rebate (that may not even apply to most people) they could maybe consider trying to encourage them to stay with lower tuition fees, or something of that nature.
Anyway, I know I am rambling and a little disorganized, but it just seems that by allowing tuition increases the provincial government has the potential to exacerbate an already serious problem. As far as I can tell, the best case scenario associated with these recommendations is that only a few thousand students stop coming to Nova Scotia to be educated - which won't be good considering the number of universities that the province has chosen to maintain.
Again, I apologize for the sloppy organization of these ideas. I just needed to get this off my chest. Maybe if I talk it through a few more times I might have something approaching a coherent argument or position.
[And I should be clear, everything discussed here is in the context of a place that has chosen to publicly fund education and population retention schemes. The issue isn't whether or not public funds are appropriate, but how they will be used.]
Score
Cameron 58
Neil 0
Sunday, February 08, 2009
My one-track mind
It seems that since yesterday I haven't been able to get past the idea of comparisons of sizes of population units with one another. My new kick seems to be to compare census metropolitan areas (CMAs) with larger units.
Due to popular demand I have now added a few of Canada's smaller, though still sizable, municipalities and CMAs. Presumably if I come up with more comparisons in the coming days you will be able to find them here soon after I have completed compiling the tables.
Errata: Manitoba, with a population of 1 210 547, should appear between Montreal (V) and Ottawa/Gatineau (CMA).
Sources:
1. Statistics Canada, Quarterly Demographic Estimates (2008 numbers)
2. Statistics Canada, By census metropolitan area (CMA) or census agglomeration (CA), (2006 numbers)
3. Statistics Canada, All census subdivisions (CSDs), (2006 numbers)
Sources:
1. Statistics Canada, By census metropolitan area (CMA) or census agglomeration (CA), (2006 numbers)
2. Statistics Canada, All census subdivisions (CSDs), (2006 numbers)
3. Statistics Canada, Quarterly Demographic Estimates (2008 numbers)
Blog-off
Cameron: 9
Neil: 0
Due to popular demand I have now added a few of Canada's smaller, though still sizable, municipalities and CMAs. Presumably if I come up with more comparisons in the coming days you will be able to find them here soon after I have completed compiling the tables.
Errata: Manitoba, with a population of 1 210 547, should appear between Montreal (V) and Ottawa/Gatineau (CMA).
Sources:
1. Statistics Canada, Quarterly Demographic Estimates (2008 numbers)
2. Statistics Canada, By census metropolitan area (CMA) or census agglomeration (CA), (2006 numbers)
3. Statistics Canada, All census subdivisions (CSDs), (2006 numbers)
Sources:
1. Statistics Canada, By census metropolitan area (CMA) or census agglomeration (CA), (2006 numbers)
2. Statistics Canada, All census subdivisions (CSDs), (2006 numbers)
3. Statistics Canada, Quarterly Demographic Estimates (2008 numbers)
Blog-off
Cameron: 9
Neil: 0
Saturday, February 07, 2009
More population comparisons
A few days ago I posted a table that listed the provinces, metropolitan areas, and municipalities ordered by population. As you might have noticed, this first table is quite similar to the one that was posted a few days ago, the main differences are a change in terminology and a correction in one of the Winnipeg listings.
Errata: The superscript '3' by Hamilton should actually be a superscript '2.'
Sources:
1. Statistics Canada, Quarterly Demographic Estimates (2008 numbers)
2. Statistics Canada, By census metropolitan area (CMA) or census agglomeration (CA), (2006 numbers)
3. Statistics Canada, All census subdivisions (CSDs), (2006 numbers)
This second table is what seems to me to be the obvious continuation of the first, a representation of size of cities relative to their metropolitan areas. As you can see, Canada's largest cities comprise less than half of their respective metropolitan areas. It seems that it might be worth noting that Calgary, a city that has been experiencing a population boom in recent years, stands apart from some of Canada's older and more established cities in terms of its development patterns. Though it isn't on the table, and it isn't as large, Winnipeg is another city that comprises the vast majority of the metropolitan area.
Sources:
1. Statistics Canada, By census metropolitan area (CMA) or census agglomeration (CA), (2006 numbers)
2. Statistics Canada, All census subdivisions (CSDs), (2006 numbers)
Blog-off
Cameron: 8
Neil: 0
Errata: The superscript '3' by Hamilton should actually be a superscript '2.'
Sources:
1. Statistics Canada, Quarterly Demographic Estimates (2008 numbers)
2. Statistics Canada, By census metropolitan area (CMA) or census agglomeration (CA), (2006 numbers)
3. Statistics Canada, All census subdivisions (CSDs), (2006 numbers)
This second table is what seems to me to be the obvious continuation of the first, a representation of size of cities relative to their metropolitan areas. As you can see, Canada's largest cities comprise less than half of their respective metropolitan areas. It seems that it might be worth noting that Calgary, a city that has been experiencing a population boom in recent years, stands apart from some of Canada's older and more established cities in terms of its development patterns. Though it isn't on the table, and it isn't as large, Winnipeg is another city that comprises the vast majority of the metropolitan area.
Sources:
1. Statistics Canada, By census metropolitan area (CMA) or census agglomeration (CA), (2006 numbers)
2. Statistics Canada, All census subdivisions (CSDs), (2006 numbers)
Blog-off
Cameron: 8
Neil: 0
Wednesday, February 04, 2009
A Few Quick Notes 268
-While a major storm was predicted to hit Halifax yesterday it seems that that isn't quite how things played out. While we did have some snow, and eventually a few ice pellets, things didn't ever really it up to what I would call a storm (though at times it certainly was unpleasant). After a few periods of flurries this morning things seem to have really become quite nice today, which is good.
-I had my second lecture of the term this morning. While I felt it went pretty well I am having a hard time sensing what the students thought about the experience.
-It seems that Neil is now claiming that his continued failure to post in the blog-off is to let me "build up a false sense of security," the suggestion that he will swoop in with a few last minute posts in the dying days or hours or February. I can say that I believe him, but it should also be known that I have expected such behaviour from the beginning, thus the daily posts since the beginning of the blog-off. Though his track record would suggest that he can typically out-strategerize me in competitive settings, I don't think that it will be possible in this instance (not to say that I don't think that it is possible for him to win given that the competition is stacked in his favour).
-Sunday's turkey has left us rather left-over turkey rich. Yesterday we had turkey noodle soup. Today we are having turkey pot-pie. Tomorrow I will probably have a turkey sandwich or two for lunch. I presume that by the time we finish off the turkey I will be ready for at least a week or so off from turkey.
-Much to my surprise, the corn that I planted in my bedroom in September is still alive and kicking. Not only has it managed to live through the winter thus far, it has seemingly thrived.
The thyme and banana plant also seem to be doing relatively well given the growing conditions. The beans, while they have managed to hang on through the winter, really don't look that good. I imagine that in a few days I will have to chop them down and start again (this time with Scarlett Runner beans).
-I realize now that in my last post I should not have used the term 'jurisdiction' as metropolitan areas are not jurisdictions in the traditional sense of the word. Actually, that they are not 'jurisdictions' kind of puts them in the situation they find themselves in, which is not a single municipal or regional government can speak for the region. This division of authority seems to undercut their demands for increased authority as it would likely mean more disparate policies in a small geographic region, potentially reducing efficiency rather than enhancing it (though surely there are arguments against such a position).
Anyway, terminology aside, the issue of the role of municipalities/metropolitan areas in Canada is still on my mind, the creation of the previously posted list didn't really do much to ease the tension.
Blog-off
Cameron: 5
Neil: 0
-I had my second lecture of the term this morning. While I felt it went pretty well I am having a hard time sensing what the students thought about the experience.
-It seems that Neil is now claiming that his continued failure to post in the blog-off is to let me "build up a false sense of security," the suggestion that he will swoop in with a few last minute posts in the dying days or hours or February. I can say that I believe him, but it should also be known that I have expected such behaviour from the beginning, thus the daily posts since the beginning of the blog-off. Though his track record would suggest that he can typically out-strategerize me in competitive settings, I don't think that it will be possible in this instance (not to say that I don't think that it is possible for him to win given that the competition is stacked in his favour).
-Sunday's turkey has left us rather left-over turkey rich. Yesterday we had turkey noodle soup. Today we are having turkey pot-pie. Tomorrow I will probably have a turkey sandwich or two for lunch. I presume that by the time we finish off the turkey I will be ready for at least a week or so off from turkey.
-Much to my surprise, the corn that I planted in my bedroom in September is still alive and kicking. Not only has it managed to live through the winter thus far, it has seemingly thrived.
The thyme and banana plant also seem to be doing relatively well given the growing conditions. The beans, while they have managed to hang on through the winter, really don't look that good. I imagine that in a few days I will have to chop them down and start again (this time with Scarlett Runner beans).
-I realize now that in my last post I should not have used the term 'jurisdiction' as metropolitan areas are not jurisdictions in the traditional sense of the word. Actually, that they are not 'jurisdictions' kind of puts them in the situation they find themselves in, which is not a single municipal or regional government can speak for the region. This division of authority seems to undercut their demands for increased authority as it would likely mean more disparate policies in a small geographic region, potentially reducing efficiency rather than enhancing it (though surely there are arguments against such a position).
Anyway, terminology aside, the issue of the role of municipalities/metropolitan areas in Canada is still on my mind, the creation of the previously posted list didn't really do much to ease the tension.
Blog-off
Cameron: 5
Neil: 0
Tuesday, February 03, 2009
25 Largest Jurisdictions in Canada
A few days ago I as thinking that I really wanted to see the populations of various political jurisdictions in relation to other political jurisdiction. In particular, I was interested in seeing how certain municipalities matched up against provinces, and how much difference there was between the city proper and the metropolitan area.
Anyway, this is a quick version of this list.
Sources:
1. Statistics Canada, Quarterly Demographic Estimates (2008 numbers)
2. Statistics Canada, By census metropolitan area (CMA) or census agglomeration (CA), (2006 numbers)
3. Statistics Canada, All census subdivisions (CSDs), (2006 numbers)
Blog-off
Cameron: 4
Neil: 0
Anyway, this is a quick version of this list.
Sources:
1. Statistics Canada, Quarterly Demographic Estimates (2008 numbers)
2. Statistics Canada, By census metropolitan area (CMA) or census agglomeration (CA), (2006 numbers)
3. Statistics Canada, All census subdivisions (CSDs), (2006 numbers)
Blog-off
Cameron: 4
Neil: 0
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